Slow down in the construction materials industry in July 2023

First, building materials industry climate index in July

In July 2023, the building materials industry climate index was 94.1 points, down 9.3 points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, in the non-boom range, affected by high temperature, rainfall and other seasonal factors, the building materials industry weakened, showing a slowing trend.

Building materials industry monthly climate index

On the supply side, in July, the sub-index of the supply side of building materials was below the critical point. Among them, the industrial price index of building materials 98.7 points, down 0.1 points from the previous month, and the price index of building materials products continued to decline; The industrial production index of building materials was 95.3 points, down 9.3 points from the previous month, and the production of building materials products slowed down.

On the demand side, in addition to the international trade index is higher than the critical point, the building materials investment demand index and industrial consumption index are lower than the critical point, and the export is stable in pulling the building materials industry. Among them, the building materials investment demand index 92.9 points, down 10.6 points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, the construction market demand fell sharply, infrastructure construction investment growth fell, the real estate market demand continued to decline is the main factor; Building materials products industrial consumption index 96.2 points, down 7.1 points from the previous month, the application of building materials products related manufacturing demand fell; The international trade index of building materials was 102.6 points, up 0.6 points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the export of building materials and commodities maintained steady growth.

2. MPI influencing factors analysis and early warning

Demand for building materials is seasonally weaker. Affected by seasonal factors, the demand in the investment field continues to be weak, the consumer demand in the industrial field is slowing down, the market of the building materials industry is showing a decline in volatility, and the production of building materials is slowing down with the change in demand. However, under the influence of the "guaranteed housing" policy and the demand driven by photovoltaic, vehicle and other fields this year, the production of construction technology glass and other industries has remained relatively strong.

The price of the product is falling. In the building materials 13 industries, waterproof building materials, light building materials, thermal insulation materials, clay and sand mining, mineral fiber and composite materials, five sub-industries product prices rose quarter-on-quarter, other industries product prices fell quarter-on-quarter. Only the ex-factory prices of construction and technical glass and non-metallic mining products maintained year-on-year growth, and the prices of products in other industries declined year-on-year.

The adjustment between supply and demand is expected to increase. High temperature, rainfall and other climatic factors on the construction market and building materials production activities appeared, supply and demand fell simultaneously. Since this year, the market relationship of oversupply has led to the continuous downward price, the decline of industry efficiency, and the increase of business risk. Under the influence of weak demand expectations, market competition has intensified, and the balance between supply and demand has shown signs of slight adjustment.

Note:

1. The building materials industry climate index (MPI) mainly monitors the operating trend of the building materials industry, and has a strong forecasting and early warning function. When MPI is higher than 100, it indicates that the building materials industry is operating in the boom zone, and when MPI is lower than 100, it indicates that the building materials industry is operating in the non-boom zone.

2. The building materials Industry Climate Index (MPI) judges the operating trend of the building materials industry from the supply side and the demand side. The supply side is divided into price index and production index, and the demand side is divided into investment demand index, industrial consumption index and building materials international trade index according to the actual impact of the demand field on the building materials industry.

3. The industrial price index of building materials reflects the changing trend of ex-factory prices of building materials industry. The ex-factory price does not include the costs, product profits and taxes generated in the circulation process of building materials products. The ex-factory price is different from the market price, the changes of the two will affect each other, there is a time lag, there may be inconsistent trends in a certain period of time.

4. Industrial production index of building materials, reflecting the changing trend of industrial production of building materials, excluding price changes.

5. Investment Demand Index, reflecting the changing trend of investment market demand related to building materials.

6. The Industrial consumption Index reflects the changing trend of industrial consumption demand related to construction materials. Industrial consumption includes not only the consumption within the building materials industry, but also the consumption of building materials products by downstream industries.

7. The international trade index of building materials reflects the changing trend of international trade of building materials, which is mainly composed of export indexes of building sanitary ceramics, building technology glass, building stone, glass fiber and composite materials, non-metallic minerals and other industries.